Projetando o Impacto da Reforma Trabalhista Brasileira
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31501/ealr.v12i1.11855Abstract
Esta pesquisa visa fornecer um estudo comparativo que procura projetar os impactos da Reforma Trabalhista brasileira sobre o desemprego. Como estratégia adotada, o estudo compara a reforma brasileira com reformas trabalhistas similares implementadas no mundo, como a reforma alemã (2003-2005), e a australiana (1994). Utilizando o Método de Controle Sintético, os efeitos de longo prazo sugerem uma queda média da taxa natural do desemprego brasileiro entre -1,17 p.p (efeito encontrado na Austrália) e -3,46 p.p (efeito encontrado na Alemanha). O estudo estima, portanto, que a reforma trabalhista pode ter efeitos expressivos em termos de redução do nível de desemprego brasileiro. Este efeito sobre a queda do desemprego, contudo tende a ocorrer de forma bastante lenta.
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