Referendum on the Creation of New States: the Pará case
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18836/2178-0587/ealr.v5n1p1-21Abstract
Em dezembro de 2011, a população do Pará foi às urnas para votar uma proposta de redivisão territorial do estado em três: Pará, Carajás e Tapajós. A votação rejeitou a criação de novos estados. Neste artigo, estudam-se os determinantes deste resultado a partir de modelos de proporção (beta regression). A análise econométrica encontrou que: (a) a distância da capital influiu negativamente no resultado das urnas destes municípios, (b) que a área de um município tem influência negativa sobre este resultado e que, (c) parece ter havido certo “efeito-solidariedade” (ou um “efeito pró-emancipação”): nossas estimativas indicam que, pertencer à Carajás aumenta o percentual de votos dados favoravelmente à criação de Tapajós em 4,66 pontos percentuais em relação à votação nos outros municípios. Esse número é de 3,83 pontos percentuais para Tapajós.
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