Dissuasão e Incapacitação: A lei nº 12.403/11 e os Crimes Contra o Patrimônio


  • Bruno Ottoni IBRE/FGV


The relationship between crime and justice has been extensively studied. Most of the literature focuses on developed countries and finds that crimes are affected by the legal system. However, justice maybe less effective in altering criminal behavior in developing countries, for instance, due to the higher levels of corruption observed in these countries. This paper analyzes the impact of Brazilian law number 12.403 - which caused a substantial reduction in the likelihood of preventive detention - on both theft and robbery. I explore the fact that the new law altered the adult penal code but left the juvenile criminal system unchanged. Using a difference-in-difference strategy that compares adults to juveniles I find that the law is consistent with an increase of 30% in theft and has no impact on robberies.


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Author Biography

Bruno Ottoni, IBRE/FGV

Bruno Ottoni Eloy Vaz é doutor e mestre em Economia pela PUC-Rio e bacharel em Ciências Econômicas pela UFRJ. Foi professor do departamento de Economia da PUC-Rio e Analista Sênior do Instituto de Segurança Pública. Atualmente, é pesquisador na FGV e professor no Instituto Brasileiro de Mercado de Capitais. Pesquisa na área de microeconomia aplicada.