USO DA SIMULAÇÃO PARA ANÁLISE EX-POST DE FUSÕES: SIMULAÇÃO E APLICAÇÃO AO CASO AMBEV
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31501/ealr.v10i1.8953Abstract
Este artigo demonstra como utilizar determinada classe de modelos de demanda e oferta por produtos diferenciados para simulação de desinvestimento no contexto de fusões. Determinam-se os parâmetros de um modelo de demanda de escolha discreta (Mixed Logit) e, com o lado da oferta modelado como um jogo de Bertrand entre firmas multi-produto, simulam-se novos cenários alternativos ao desinvestimento. O modelo é aplicado inicialmente a dados fictícios, para ressaltar os principais passos da metodologia, e para um caso real (Ambev). A segunda aplicação avalia a decisão imposta à Ambev pelo Cade, que determinou a venda da marca Bavaria a um novo entrante, com o objetivo de mitigar os potenciais danos à concorrência decorrentes da fusão.
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