Russian-Ukrainian inflection point: the Russian perception of the conflict in Eastern Europe

Abstract

This study analyses the Russo-Ukrainian conflict from the perspective of Russian strategic perceptions and decisions, particularly under Vladimir Putin's leadership. The research examines the post-Cold War historical context, the evolution of theRussian foreign policy, and the key geopolitical events leading to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The methodology employed includes bibliographic research, theoretical support from authors such as Angelo Segrillo, and an analysis of historical events and foreign policies. The research also adopts Andrew Korybko's concept of Hybrid Warfare to understand U.S. strategies in the region. The findings indicate that Russian foreign policy oscillated between assertiveness and aggression, influenced by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) expansion and Colour Revolutions promoted by the West. Thus, Putin's Russia assertively responds to perceived threats to its security and regional influence.