Demographic dinamics and homicide rate in state of Minas Gerais

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DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31501/ealr.v14i1.13934

Abstract

This article analyzes the influence of demographic changes in the state, characterized by the decrease of the young population, more prone to crime, on the homicide rates per thousand inhabitants in the 2000s, 2010 and 2018. The results of the shift-share model showed that the mortality function explains most of the differences in homicide rates in the period, with the population composition effect having a small influence. Estimates of the determinants of homicide rates for municipalities in Minas Gerais, despite the difficulties in modeling the event using aggregated data, demonstrated that demographic characteristics are important. Another factor to be highlighted was the effect of the educational level of the population in the municipalities in reducing homicides. This relationship, considering the seriousness of the levels of violent crime verified in the state, can demonstrate the need to expand the policies to fight crime through the improvement of social indicators, not focusing its combat only on police repression.

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Author Biography

Luiz Eduardo Vasconcelos Rocha, Universidade Federal de São João del Rei

Graduado em Ciências Econômicas pela Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (1988), Mestre em Economia Rural pela Universidade Federal de Viçosa (1994) e doutor em Economia Rural pela Universidade Federal de Viçosa (2000). Atualmente é Professor Titular do Departamento de Ciências Econômicas da Universidade Federal de São João Del Rei (UFSJ), atuando nos cursos de Graduação em Ciências Econômicas e no Programa de Mestrado em Desenvolvimento, Planejamento e Território (PGDPLAT/UFSJ). Tem experiência na área de Economia, atuando principalmente nos seguintes temas: Desenvolvimento Humano, Abordagem das Capacitações, Convergência de Renda e Mercado de Trabalho.

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Published

2024-01-23

Issue

Vol. 14 No. 1 (2023): Economic Analysis of Law Review

Section

Papers

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