A carga tributária brasileira está além de seu nível ótimo? Medindo o Excesso de governo no Brasil
Abstract
Este trabalho investiga a relação entre gasto do governo e crescimento econômico para o Brasil. Especificamente, o objetivo é estimar o tamanho ótimo do governo que maximiza o crescimento econômico. Teoricamente a relação entre gasto do governo e crescimento econômico é conhecida como “Curva BARS”. Utilizou-se a metodologia ARDL (Autoregressive with Distributed Lags) com testes de limites (bounds test). Uma das vantagens desta metodologia é de ser menos sensível ao problema de pequenas amostras. Essa metodologia foi aplicada para dados de PIB e carga tributária do Brasil no período de 1947 a 2013. O resultado obtido indica uma carga tributária ótima de 28,38% do PIB e a evidência que a Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal teve impacto positivo para o crescimento econômico.
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