THE DAY AFTER: PLANNING FOR CHINA SCENARIOS THAT PROFOUNDLY ALTER THE STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT

Resumen

This work examines the strategic implications of the incorporation of Taiwan into the People’s Republic of China (PRC) under three scenarios: (1) The U.S. does not come to Taiwan’s defense; (2) The PRC forcibly incorporates Taiwan following a significant but limited conventional war in which the U.S. comes to Taiwan’s defense but ultimately fails; and (3) The PRC incorporates Taiwan after a war escalating to a nuclear exchange with the US.  The article concludes that the long-term strategic implications of a PRC incorporation of Taiwan for the US and global democratic order are grave, and that it may be in the US national interest to militarily come to Taiwan’s defense, even if it causes significant loss of life and expenditure of resources, even if that defense ultimately fails.