THE STABILITY OF MONEY DEMAND FUNCTIONS: MÉXICO, 1986-2002.
Keywords:
Direito Tributário, Teoria dos Sistemas, Análise econômicaAbstract
Over the years 1989-1993, Mexico underwent financial liberalization, privatization of commercial banks, and opening to foreign markets. Using Mexican montly data over 1986-2002, this paper studies several money demand specifications. The benchmark vectors have currency strongly cointegrated with income (from 0.75 to 1.15), interest rate (from -0.03 to -0.05), and inflation rate (about 0.29), while specifications with M1 and M2 fail. A coefficient of 0.59 of the currency-money ratio (CUR/M1) would suggest that when the ratio falls (financial innovations rise), the demand for currency falls, but the evidence is weak. Several stability tests are performed around the 1991 episode of "M1 explosion" and around the 1994 currency crisis. These do not detect structural change in the latter for the traditional models but do so in the former for all models. The traditional models are thus not worse than the financial innovations one, perhaps because the financial innovations term is contaminated by factors related to the money supply process.Downloads
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