Dropout and Curricular Progress: An Analysis through Stages and Survival Curves

Abstract

The aim of this study is to analyze student dropout in degree programs offered by the Department of Physics at the National University of the South in relation to curricular progress. Using academic records from student cohorts between 2004 and 2019, a quantitative approach is adopted, combining frequency analysis and survival analysis techniques, with curricular progress used as the temporal variable to model retention probability.

The results show that dropout is a high-magnitude phenomenon (69%) and is primarily concentrated in a stage prior to the effective start of coursework: 71% of cases correspond to students who do not complete any subjects in the curriculum. This finding highlights a critical threshold in the transition from remedial courses to formal academic engagement. Survival analysis confirms this pattern, revealing a steep initial decline in retention probability followed by stabilization in later stages. In addition, differences between programs are observed, along with a significant group of students who drop out after completing coursework but before passing final exams.

These findings provide empirical evidence for understanding dropout dynamics from an academic trajectory perspective and suggest the need for differentiated institutional policies according to different stages of the student pathway, particularly focusing on entry, persistence, and completion.